China's car market entered 2026 with a clear message: the gap between stronger and weaker manufacturers is widening.
A slower month with sharper divides
January sales were pressured by demand pulled forward before changes to new-energy vehicle tax incentives, leaving many companies with sharp month-on-month declines.
The market still grew slightly from a year earlier, helped by a later Lunar New Year and more working days than in January 2025. According to the article, total market growth was about 0.3 per cent. Beneath that mild headline, the competitive order shifted quickly.
Traditional Chinese automakers are leaning on new-energy vehicles and exports. EV start-ups are consolidating around a smaller group of leaders. Joint ventures are splitting between those adapting to electrification and those being left behind.
Traditional Chinese groups rely on EVs and exports
SAIC led January with wholesale sales of 327,000 vehicles, up 23.9 per cent year on year. Its own brands sold 214,000 units, up 39.6 per cent, while SAIC Passenger Vehicle, SAIC Maxus and SAIC-GM-Wuling delivered 77,000, 18,000 and 105,000 units respectively. New-energy sales reached 85,000 units, up 39.7 per cent.
Exports were just as important. SAIC shipped 105,000 vehicles overseas in January, up 51.7 per cent, with MG delivering nearly 26,000 vehicles in Europe, up about 15 per cent. The numbers show how overseas markets are now central to the group's growth.
Geely was one of the few major carmakers to post both year-on-year and month-on-month gains. It sold about 270,200 vehicles in January, up 1.3 per cent from a year earlier and 14.1 per cent from December. New-energy vehicles accounted for 124,300 units, or 46 per cent of total sales.
Geely's brand structure is becoming clearer. The Geely brand, including Galaxy, sold 217,400 vehicles, with Galaxy contributing 83,000. Lynk & Co sold 28,900 units, while Zeekr delivered 23,900, almost doubling year on year. Exports reached 60,500 vehicles, up 121 per cent from a year earlier and 50 per cent from the previous month.
Chery remained one of China's export leaders. Its January sales fell 10.7 per cent year on year to 200,300 vehicles, but exports reached 119,600 units, up 48.1 per cent. It was the ninth consecutive month in which Chery exported more than 100,000 vehicles, making overseas sales a core pillar rather than a side business.
BYD faced domestic pressure, with January new-energy sales down 30.1 per cent to 210,100 units. Exports helped offset the weakness. Passenger-car and pickup exports reached 100,000 units, up 43.3 per cent. BYD has set a 2026 overseas sales target of 1.3 million vehicles, supported by a larger global retail network and more local production.
Other groups also showed resilience. GAC sold 116,600 vehicles, up 18.47 per cent, with its own brands up 87.59 per cent. Great Wall sold 90,300 vehicles, up 11.59 per cent, with overseas sales of 40,300. Dongfeng's eπ Technology sold 21,300 units, up 145 per cent, and Voyah delivered 10,500, up 31 per cent.
China's EV start-ups enter a new hierarchy
The start-up camp showed the clearest signs of consolidation. Demand pull-forward and seasonal weakness caused broad month-on-month declines, but year-on-year results varied sharply. The old Nio-Xpeng-Li Auto order has been replaced by a new group led by Huawei-backed brands, Xiaomi and Leapmotor.
Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance delivered 57,900 vehicles in January, up 65.6 per cent year on year, despite a 35.3 per cent monthly decline. Aito contributed more than 40,000 vehicles, up 83 per cent, while other alliance brands added volume. Huawei's support in smart driving, electric drive and connected technology remains a major advantage.
Xiaomi Auto delivered more than 39,000 vehicles, taking the monthly single-brand lead among start-ups for the first time. Deliveries were down 22 per cent from more than 50,000 in December, but Xiaomi remained strong during a product transition. The YU7 was the main delivery model, while a new-generation SU7 is expected in April. Lei Jun has set a 2026 sales target of 550,000 vehicles.
Nio and Zeekr were the growth standouts. Nio delivered 27,200 vehicles, up 96.1 per cent, with the new ES8 accounting for about 17,600 units, or 64.7 per cent of the total. Zeekr delivered 23,900 units, up 99.7 per cent, benefiting from Geely's supply chain and technology base.
Li Auto and Xpeng were under short-term pressure. Li Auto sold 27,700 vehicles, down 7.55 per cent year on year, while Xpeng delivered more than 20,000, down 34 per cent from a year earlier and 46.6 per cent from December. Both are in product-changeover periods and need new models to restore momentum.
Leapmotor delivered 32,000 vehicles, up 27 per cent year on year, but down 46.9 per cent from December. It remains a major contender after leading start-up annual deliveries in 2025, though pressure from Xiaomi, Huawei-backed brands, Nio and Zeekr will test its value-for-money model and push it toward higher segments.
Joint ventures split by transition speed
Foreign joint ventures remain under pressure from Chinese brands and EV start-ups, but January showed that the category is not moving as one. Brands that adapted faster or retained strong core models held up better. Those with slower electrification and older product structures struggled.
GAC Toyota sold 63,600 vehicles, up nearly 10 per cent, helped by the Camry and Sienna. Camry sales reached 17,400 units, up 17 per cent, while Sienna sales reached 9,133, up 35 per cent. The brand's classic fuel and hybrid models still have resilience while it gradually adds intelligent electric vehicles.
SAIC-GM delivered 51,000 vehicles to customers, up 8.2 per cent, helped by new-energy sales growth of 89.7 per cent and a doubling of exports. Though its EV base remains modest, the numbers suggest its transition is gaining some traction.
GAC Honda and Dongfeng Honda showed the challenge for Japanese joint ventures. GAC Honda sold 27,600 vehicles and remained under pressure from slow electrification, while Dongfeng Honda sold 31,400, up 4.4 per cent, relying on core models but still needing a faster EV shift.
The January pattern points to a market in which no company can rely on one hit product or short-term marketing. Exports, electrification, software, supply-chain efficiency and channel discipline are becoming the minimum conditions for survival. The stronger players are already using those advantages to widen the gap.
